The Miami Heat landed the player NBA general managers expect to make the biggest difference this season, but that endorsement has not translated into a place among the Eastern Conference favorites.
In the annual NBA GM survey, released Thursday, Giannis Antetokounmpo received 53 percent of the vote for the offseason acquisition expected to have the greatest impact. Miami nevertheless tied Indiana for seventh in the East’s weighted voting.
That placement needs context. Executives selected their top four teams, with four points awarded for first, three for second, two for third and one for fourth. It was not a ballot asking everyone to rank Miami seventh.
| Rank | Eastern Conference team | Share of voting points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 32% |
| 2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 19% |
| 3 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 15% |
| 4 | Boston Celtics | 15% |
| 5 | Detroit Pistons | 12% |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 3% |
| T-7 | Indiana Pacers | 2% |
| T-7 | Miami Heat | 2% |
The results establish a gap between enthusiasm for the addition and confidence in the finished team. They do not explain each executive’s reasoning, so concerns about shooting, health or depth should not be presented as statements from the voters.
Miami has shooting, but creating shots is a separate question
The Heat’s supporting cast gives Erik Spoelstra several ways to punish opponents who collapse around Antetokounmpo. Tim Hardaway Jr. made 224 3-pointers at 40.7 percent during the 2025-26 regular season, while Klay Thompson made 202 at 38.3 percent.
Those are established sources of perimeter production. Their combined 426 makes show that Miami has recruited players with a recent record of converting outside shots, rather than relying entirely on improvement from returning players.
There is also a natural connection between Miami’s pace and its new star. Transition accounted for 24.9 percent of the Heat’s possessions last season.
Antetokounmpo averaged 1.21 points per transition possession over the preceding five years, compared with 1.13 for the rest of the league.
Those numbers describe a promising combination of existing strengths. They do not measure how the new roster performs together or resolve what happens when an opponent forces Miami into a slower game.
In comments Heat Nation covered Monday, Zach Lowe outlined a likely range of 46 to 50 wins while identifying a concern about perimeter creation.
“The lack of pull up, off the dribble shooting is a little bit worrisome,” said Lowe.
His concern addresses how a shot becomes available, not simply whether a teammate can make it. A pass to an open shooter and a contested possession that requires someone to create separation place different demands on a lineup.
For Miami, the practical test comes after an opponent stops the initial drive. The Heat need the next player to keep the offense moving, whether that means attacking a closeout, finding a cutter or creating a shot before the clock runs down.
That is a specific question to track without assuming it explains the anonymous survey responses.
The Giannis-Bam partnership has already offered encouraging signs
A separate discussion on the Oct. 8 episode of “The Zach Lowe Show” offered a more detailed look at the potential fit.
Analyst Nekias Duncan highlighted Miami’s movement around Antetokounmpo during the preseason opener against Toronto, including opportunities created by drives and passes to perimeter teammates.
Duncan also liked what he saw defensively from Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, particularly their ability to handle different assignments while maintaining protection near the basket.
His assessment came with the limitations of a preseason game against an opponent missing personnel.
Lowe’s follow-up centered on Antetokounmpo’s availability and Adebayo’s responsibilities when his new teammate has possession. He also acknowledged the possibility of the two big men combining directly in offensive actions.
That discussion identifies a more useful measure of progress than an isolated highlight. When the stars share the floor, Miami needs both to influence the defense.
Adebayo’s involvement can take several forms, and the best version of the partnership will depend on more than his outside shooting alone.
Spoelstra has described a role for both big men
The coach has already explained that Adebayo will have opportunities to direct the offense. As Heat Nation reported Sept. 30, Spoelstra discussed using Antetokounmpo away from the ball while Adebayo creates.
“It’s about playmaking, it’s about cutting, it’s about Giannis sometimes playing off the ball and Bam making the play,” Spoelstra said.
That arrangement gives the Heat a way to involve both players without making every possession depend on an Antetokounmpo drive. It also makes their understanding of teammate movement important.
During camp, Antetokounmpo described sending a pass out of bounds because the intended receiver moved somewhere other than where he expected.
The account illustrated a concrete adjustment: anticipating a pass is useful only when the player receiving it recognizes the same opportunity.
The next step is making those connections dependable against opponents trying to disrupt them.
Practice mistakes do not establish a season-long weakness, but they help explain why assembling talent and coordinating an offense are separate stages of the process.
LeBron sees a strong defensive foundation
There is a prominent case for optimism on the other end. In comments covered by Heat Nation on Tuesday, LeBron James praised Miami’s defensive personnel on “Mind the Game,” pointing to Adebayo, Antetokounmpo, Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell.
“I think defensively they’re going to be damn good,” James said.
James also credited Spoelstra’s ability to organize those players. That endorsement concerns a group with several possible answers to opposing scorers, rather than a defense built around one player’s contributions.
For the Heat, the opportunity is to connect that defensive potential with reliable offense. Stops can create chances to run, while better coordination between the big men can help when transition is unavailable.
Those are tangible areas in which Miami can establish its level once the games count.
