It’s been a somber summer for the Miami Heat. When free agency began back in July, there was an initial air of hopefulness in Miami. The team made quick work of the Hassan Whiteside situation by almost immediately signing him to a long-term deal, but soon thereafter, things took a turn for the worse.
First, the Heat failed to sign the highly sought-after Kevin Durant. Then, South Florida’s greatest champion, Dwyane Wade, left to sign with the Chicago Bulls. More recently, the Heat announced that Chris Bosh, the final remaining member of the “Big Three,” will probably never play another game in a Heat uniform.
For Heat fans, losing out on Bosh and Wade certainly hurts, but the fact is, the show must go on. Miami will now have to find a way to move on from a heartbreaking offseason and focus on the team’s potential for success in the future.
So, what’s next for the Heat?
1. The Evolution of Justise Winslow
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The Heat’s 2015 first-round draft pick has already proven to the world that he is ready to succeed in the NBA. Justise Winslow made a name for himself on the defensive side of the ball last season while earning valuable time guarding some of the league’s best players. He eventually even earned a starting role in the playoffs.
The next step in the evolution of the former Duke University product will be for him to develop and hone his offensive game. In 2015-16, Winslow averaged a mere 6.4 points per game. Granted, Winslow was rarely used as an offensive weapon, so he didn’t take many shots. Regardless, he must continue to develop his jump shot.
In an increased role on offense during this year’s summer league play, Winslow brought his scoring average up to 16.3 points per game. With the loss of primary scorers Bosh and Wade, expect Winslow to be counted on more heavily to produce points. Once he hones his offensive game, the next step for the six-foot-seven forward will be to take on more of a leadership role. Miami is a very young team and Winslow sounds like he’s ready to take the reigns.
Next: Power Forward by Committee
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2. Power Forward by Committee
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Bosh’s tenure with the Heat is most likely over after the team had recently learned that he failed his physical. Fortunately for Miami, they have signed a well-rounded mix of solid power forwards in the offseason. Currently, the starting four spot is up in the air and the fact is, there is plenty of talent at that position on Miami’s roster.
Udonis Haslem, Derrick Williams and James Johnson have the experience, while guys like Willie Reed and Stefan Jankovic have youth and athleticism and have shown serious potential thus far in their respective careers. Josh McRoberts may also be considered for the job, but he has recently announced that he’s still recovering from a broken foot suffered in last season’s playoffs.
Luke Babbitt is also an interesting play at power forward considering how well he can space the floor and knock down 3-pointers. Babbit is a career 40.3% shooter from beyond the arc and will undoubtedly be utilized on a team that has struggled to get the long ball going in the past. In fact, the team believes its best strategy this season may be to surround Whiteside with 3-point shooters while the big man does the heavy lifting down low. This tactic would help take advantage of Babbitt’s strong suits and maximize his potential.
Knowing head coach Erik Spoelstra and the way he likes to tinker and experiment with different lineups, we will likely see a power forward by committee situation in Miami. Winlsow will likely spend some time at power forward too until someone stands out as the clear-cut best man for the job.
Next: Grooming of the Guards
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3. Grooming of the Guards
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The talent and depth at shooting guard may be one of Miami’s strongest suits. Reports indicate that Dion Waiters is the “frontrunner” for the starting job, but close behind him are two very talented guards in Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson. All three guards are still young, but the Heat organization is one of the best in the business when it comes to grooming young talent.
Waiters holds the highest career scoring average of the bunch with 12.8 points per game. Though the Heat really like Richardson and Johnson (and Wayne Ellington, for that matter), Waiters is a guy who can take the Heat to the next level.
Granted, there’s no perfect replacement for a guy like Wade, but the former Oklahoma City Thunder guard certainly seems like he’s up for the task:
“Just know I’m a man on a mission,” Waiters recently told reporters at Heat media day.
Johnson and Richardson have each shown flashes of brilliance during their time with the Heat. Richardson was a breakout rookie in 2015-16 and earned valuable minutes as a 3-point specialist in the latter half of the season. Meanwhile, Johnson is a fan favorite and an overall “force of nature” on the court. The Heat will undoubtedly try to get him as much playing time as possible considering they just signed him to a massive, four-year deal in the offseason worth $50 million.
Next: Salary Cap Space
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4. Salary Cap Space
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The only positive regarding the Bosh situation is that the Heat will likely get some much needed salary cap relief. If Bosh can’t return to the court, Miami can apply for an injury exclusion for his salary on Feb. 9th, 2017. This exclusion would require an independent physician to determine the injury or illness career-ending or that continuing to play would constitute a medically unacceptable risk, which could certainly apply to Bosh’s condition.
Removing Bosh’s salary from the Heat’s books would put Miami in position to clear more than $35 million in cap space under the projected 2017-18 salary cap, which leaves plenty of room to go after a big-name free agent next summer. Guys like Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka all become unrestricted free agents in July of 2017. If team president Pat Riley gets a meeting with an elite-level talent next summer, you can bet he won’t let another superstar slip through his grasp if there’s a real opportunity to sign one.
Next: The Dragic/Whiteside Era
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5. The Dragic/Whiteside Era
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Possibly the two most talented guys on the team at this point are Goran Dragic and Whiteside. Both are next-level players who will be relied on very heavily in Miami for years to come. An ESPN panel even recently gave them first-time All-Star considerations for the 2016-17 season.
Dragic is entering this season with a clear conscience knowing he will now be the primary ball-handler and playmaker on offense with Wade out of the picture. Plus, with the youth and athleticism of this Heat team, the Heat will finally be able to quicken the pace on offense and get closer to the run-and-gun style of play that perfectly suits Dragic’s game.
Dragic enters training camp fresh off his stint for the Slovenian national team in the FIBA EuroBasket 2017 Qualifiers, where he averaged 17.4 points and a tournament leading 8.4 assists per game. After showing up to training camp out of shape in 2015, the former Phoenix Suns guard says he is now in prime form both physically and mentally.
“I’m ready,” Dragic told the Palm Beach Post this week. “I already felt great at the end of last season. This year I’m in way better shape than last year because I was playing all summer. I’m ready.”
Expect Dragic to take on a heavy leadership role beginning in 2016-17.
As for Whiteside, expect domination.
This summer, Whiteside signed a four-year, $98 million contract and is ready to prove his worth on the court. Last season, Whiteside led the league in blocks (by a very wide margin), averaged 14.2 points and 11.8 rebounds per game and only played 29 minutes per contest. Those numbers are likely to increase significantly with Whiteside entering his prime as the clear cut starter at center this season.
The 7-footer has been meticulously honing his offensive game in an effort to become more of a scoring threat, too.
“Low-post scoring, that’s the number one thing he wants to work on, and I’m all for it,” coach Spoelstra said last month in a team-released video. “He will also work on his skill level at the top of the floor, handling the ball, getting us into second situations as a playmaker.”
Taking all this into consideration, and adding the fact that Whiteside will have the perfect pick-and-roll partner in Dragic, there’s no reason the prized big man can’t average 20+ points and 12+ rebounds per game in 2016-17.
So yes, Wade is gone, Bosh can no longer play and LeBron James packed his bags for Cleveland a while ago, but this franchise’s future is still bright. There is plenty to look forward to as the team rebuilds its way to the top and repaves the road to success.
Expectations are still high, just ask coach Spoelstra:
“There are some things that will never change with this organization,” Spolestra said back in August. “Our expectation is to win. Our expectation is to compete for an NBA championship regardless of who we have in this uniform.”
There may have been some (big) bumps in the road this offseason, but Riley and company still plan to forge ahead:
“Coach’s attitude and my attitude is we want to win,” Riley stated in a recent presser. “We love Hassan (Whiteside), we love Josh (Richardson) and Justise (Winslow) and Tyler (Johnson) and a lot of the other young players that we have, so I think from that standpoint, it’s a wait and let’s see what happens. And then we’ll go from there. We’re rebuilding now. We’re not tweaking, like we did with the Big Three team. Or retooling, like we had to do right after LeBron left. We’re rebuilding, but we’re rebuilding to win now.”
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