Zach Lowe sees the Miami Heat winning plenty of games with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but his assessment leaves room between a successful regular season and a breakthrough at the top of the NBA.
Lowe placed Miami’s likely win total between 46 and 50. He expressed doubt about the Heat finishing on either side of that range while praising Antetokounmpo’s early preseason play. Lowe described Miami as “a very good team.”
Zach Lowe on the Miami Heat:
“It’d be hard for me to see them winning fewer than 46 games, and it’d be hard for me to see them winning more than 50. I think they’re just going to be a very good team. Giannis has looked great in his limited action already. — The lack of pull up,… pic.twitter.com/5EjuwJJIsy
— Heat Central (@TheHeatCentral) October 12, 2026
His reservation concerned the perimeter offense, specifically the ability to create jump shots with the ball in a player’s hands.
“The lack of pull up, off the dribble shooting is a little bit worrisome,” said Lowe.
That is a more specific question than whether Miami has players who can make 3-pointers. Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. give the Heat established shooting options, but an offense also needs ways to manufacture good attempts when the first pass does not produce an opening.
For Erik Spoelstra, the challenge is making those skills work together around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Lowe’s outlook recognizes the team’s potential while leaving a meaningful question about how its perimeter attack will function against defenses that take away the easiest opportunities.
Why Miami’s 3-point shooting does not settle Lowe’s concern
The shooting credentials are substantial. Hardaway made 224 3-pointers and shot 40.7 percent from that distance during the 2025-26 regular season.
Thompson added 202 makes at 38.3 percent. Together, that amounts to 426 made threes before either player began this season with Miami.
Those totals establish production, although they do not show how often either player created his own attempt off the dribble.
A catch-and-shoot opportunity begins with someone else creating enough space for the receiver to fire. A pull-up threat can force a defender to respect a jumper while the ball handler is still deciding whether to shoot, drive or pass.
Both have value, but adding the first does not automatically replace the second. For Miami, that distinction puts attention on how its shooters receive the ball.
An accurate shooter catching against a defender who is already recovering has a different assignment from a player asked to generate separation against a set defense late in the shot clock.
The overall 3-point percentages cannot settle that issue. Neither can they establish that Miami lacks workable answers.
They explain why the Heat have reason to believe in their spacing while still needing to demonstrate how the offense responds when opponents stay attached to the perimeter.
Pace offers another route. Transition accounted for 24.9 percent of Miami’s possessions in the 2025-26 season.
Antetokounmpo averaged 1.21 points per transition possession over the preceding five years, compared with 1.13 for the rest of the league.
Those separate track records suggest a promising fit. Getting into an attack before a defense is organized can reduce the need for difficult self-created jumpers, even though it cannot eliminate the possessions Miami must play in the half court.
Giannis has already shown how he can create for Heat shooters
Miami’s preseason opener supplied an encouraging example. Antetokounmpo finished the Oct. 3 win over Toronto with nine points and seven assists in 14 minutes, shooting 3-of-3 from the field.
Hardaway scored 14 points on 4-of-4 shooting, including three 3-pointers, while Andrew Wiggins made four threes. Miami won 129-105, with Toronto playing without Kawhi Leonard.
That context makes the performance useful without turning it into a verdict on the season. Antetokounmpo influenced the offense despite taking only three shots, while multiple teammates supplied perimeter production.
The opponent’s absences and the exhibition setting limit how much can be projected from one game. Spoelstra’s reaction focused on the passing.
As Heat Nation covered after the debut, the coach invoked Magic Johnson when discussing Antetokounmpo’s size, vision and delivery to shooters.
The practical implication is that Miami does not need every perimeter player to create an advantage from scratch. Antetokounmpo can create the initial opening.
The next question is whether his teammates can preserve it when a defense recovers, rather than having the possession stop with the first contested catch.
Bam Adebayo’s role remains central to Miami’s offensive ceiling
Lowe had already identified the frontcourt partnership as an area to watch. In the Oct. 8 episode transcript of “The Zach Lowe Show”, he emphasized Antetokounmpo’s health and questioned how Adebayo would operate when his new teammate controlled the ball.
That discussion was not uniformly skeptical. Guest Nekias Duncan praised the initial combination of driving, cutting and perimeter opportunities, along with the defensive flexibility of the two big men.
Lowe also viewed their first showing as encouraging and raised the possibility of them working together in two-man actions.
Spoelstra has described a role for Adebayo that includes initiating offense. In Heat Nation’s Sept. 30 coverage of Miami’s adjustment process, the coach discussed possessions with Adebayo creating and Antetokounmpo cutting or playing away from the ball.
“It’s about playmaking, it’s about cutting, it’s about Giannis sometimes playing off the ball and Bam making the play,” Spoelstra said.
That approach distributes responsibility for creating opportunities instead of asking Antetokounmpo to initiate every attack. It also gives Miami another way to involve both stars without reducing Adebayo’s assignment to perimeter shooting.
The execution remains important. Antetokounmpo acknowledged during camp that unfamiliar teammate movement had led him to throw a pass out of bounds.
Learning those reads is part of turning the proposed roles into dependable offense. For the Heat, exceeding Lowe’s expectations will require more than pointing to their shooters’ past percentages.
The stronger answer would be an offense that connects Antetokounmpo’s pressure on the paint, Adebayo’s playmaking and the perimeter players’ finishing, including when the first option is covered.
