With the NBA season having reached a final conclusion last Tuesday, it’s time to shift full attention to the offseason.
For the Miami Heat, they’ve been in “offseason mode” since mid-April when they missed the postseason for the first time since the 2007-08 season. While the 2015 NBA Draft on June 25 will be the first thing on the Heat’s to-do list during the offseason, the free agency period that begins on July 1 is what will determine what type of Heat team we’re looking at for the 2015-16 season.
Related: 10 Free Agents the Miami Heat Could Be Looking to Target
Things have gotten a lot more interesting over the past month due to Dwyane Wade’s impending decision regarding whether he will opt in or opt out of his current contract with Miami. For those that aren’t clear with the situation, Wade has a one-year player option worth $16.1 million.
Reports indicate that he wants more money and a longer commitment from the franchise. The Heat are willing to offer him more of a commitment, but not the type of annual salary that Wade covets—Miami reportedly offered the veteran shooting guard $36 million over the course of three years.
With the uncertainty regarding Wade’s future with the organization, along with impending decisions in regards to likely free agents such as Goran Dragic, Luol Deng and Michael Beasley, we could be looking at a make-or-break offseason for the franchise.
So the question that is on Heat Nation’s mind is which of these key players are staying for the 2015-16 season?
1. Michael Beasley
The former No. 2 overall pick was brought back to the Heat for a third stint with the franchise in late February when it was announced that forward Chris Bosh would be out for the remainder of the season due to a blood clots ailment.
Surprisingly so, he ended up being an effective scoring option off the bench for a team that desperately needed scoring outside of the starting lineup. He averaged 8.8 points in 21 minutes per game in 24 appearances. In the final game of the season, Beasley started and played all 48 minutes of a 105-101 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers.
In his best performance of the season, the small forward scored 34 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and dished eight assists.
Despite having a nice stint with the Heat this past year, it might not be enough for the franchise to pick up its 2015-16 team option on Beasley.
While he has been showing a nice work ethic in working out at American Airlines Arena with other Heat players during the offseason, Miami holds the No. 10 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft and could very well draft a small forward such as Stanley Johnson or Sam Dekker.
Related: 5 Players the Miami Heat Could Pick in This Year’s NBA Draft
If this is to happen and the Heat are to bring back Deng or go with a veteran small forward during free agency, it would make Beasley expendable.
Having said that, the former No. 2 overall pick comes at a cheap price—his option for next season is just under $1.3 million.
Considering Erik Spoelstra holds Beasley in high regard, having coached him on three different occasions since 2008, look for the veteran forward to be back in a Heat uniform for the 2015-16 season.
Prediction: Staying
Next: Luol Deng
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2. Luol Deng
Overshadowed by the news that Wade could opt out combined with Dragic’s impending free agency is the situation of Deng.
Like the aforementioned players, Deng holds a player option for the 2015-16 season worth a little over $10.1 million. However, unlike Wade and Dragic, it’s unclear as to how badly the franchise really wants Deng back.
In his first season with the organization, Deng wasn’t bad, but he didn’t exactly make the kind of impact Pat Riley envisioned when he called the signing of the veteran “one of the biggest signings in Heat history.”
The two-time All-Star averaged 14 points per game in 72 starts. While he was one of the healthiest members on the Heat roster, it’s hard to pinpoint many highlight moments for Deng in his lone season in Miami because there just weren’t any.
In between Wade’s struggles with injuries and Bosh’s season-ending ailment, Deng had every opportunity to seize the moment and he just seemed to be content playing a third or fourth option role for the entire season.
At the age of 30 and clearly on the downside of his career, the Heat just might send a clear message to Deng by drafting a small forward with the No. 10 overall pick.
It would send the message to the veteran forward to opt out of his contract and sign elsewhere if he wants to remain a starter in this league.
Prediction: Leaving
Next: Goran Dragic
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3. Goran Dragic
Dragic has already made it clear he will opt out of his contract to test free agency. But he has also stressed that he would prefer to return to Miami when the season ended: ”
“I’m a free agent, but I like this organization. I hope to stay here.”
The Heat will have salary cap space to sign either Dragic or Wade to $20 million a year, which is the type of number that both players covet. The difference is, Dragic is a 29-year-old point guard in the prime of his career who will assuredly attract numerous teams even with those salary demands. After all, he is the top point guard on the market in a league dominated by small players.
On the other hand, Wade is a 33-year-old banged up shooting guard who is entering the twilight years of his career. While still an effective All-Star player, teams won’t be knocking down the door to sign a player like Wade. In fact, the only teams that are going to even consider paying Wade more than the $16 million he would be due for the 2015-16 season are the Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Dragic was acquired at the trade deadline this past season, and Riley has stated that the franchise has every intention of retaining Dragic:
“If he doesn’t sign, my ass is going to be in that [media] seat, and I’ll be writing about it.”
With both sides feeling mutual about one another, the Slovenian point guard should be back on South Beach for the 2015-16 season, even if the salary number will be a little bit too high.
Prediction: Staying
Next: Dwyane Wade
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4. Dwyane Wade
This is the one player where Heat Nation will go absolutely ballistic if he decides to leave Miami. Or one could look at it as the franchise choosing to allow the franchise player to walk.
Wade wants a certain amount of money to feel respected and for all of the money he has sacrificed over the years in order for the team to bring in players like Bosh and LeBron James, he deserves it.
The Heat either want Wade to opt in for the 2015-16 season or sign a new contract that would pay him around the neighborhood of $12 million a year so they can continue to sign players to rebuild the team into a championship contender.
Something has got to give, and it will—the two sides will come to an agreement somehow and some way.
Wade is the biggest legend in franchise history. Riley knows this, and as smart and stubborn as he can be, he won’t allow No. 3 to walk.
Having said that, No.3 also is not worth the $20 million a year figure that reports have suggested he wants. There will have to be a compromise, and a compromise will be made.
Wade will opt out of his current contract and after a short period of flirting with teams such as the Lakers for leverage in negotiating purposes with the Heat, he will re-sign on a new contract worth less than $20 million—but more than the $12 million a year he was initially offered. Expect a multi-year contract worth slightly less annually than the $16 million player option he would have been due for the 2015-16 season.
Both sides will be happy and Heat Nation will be able to breath a huge sigh of relief.
Prediction: Staying
Next: 2015 Offseason Prediction
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5. The 2015 Offseason Prediction
The Heat are coming off of a very disappointing 2014-15 campaign that saw them finish 37-45.
While some Heat fans would love for the team to go on a big spending spree and bring in big-name free agents, that isn’t likely to happen this offseason.
During his end-of-season press conference, Riley stressed the desire to bring back all of the Heat’s core rotation players for the 2015-16 season. The reason being that these players weren’t on the court together healthy for a full season. Had they been, it’s almost safe to assume Miami would have been an elite team in the Eastern Conference.
The team could sign a player or two in free agency that end up being key rotation players, but the core of Hassan Whiteside, Bosh, Wade and Dragic will be back together for at least one more year in Miami.
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