Flash back about three and a half years ago, to a brighter time in Miami sports history, when the Miami Heat were hoisting their third Larry O’Brien trophy for all the world to see. For a brief and fading moment, Miami basked in the timeless glory that only those who’ve reached the zenith of the basketball world have experienced.
Now, flash forward about a year and a half, and it’s February of 2015. LeBron James is gone, and the Heat are struggling to maintain a .500 record, but still, things aren’t so bad. The Heat’s heads are held high as they’re just beginning to find rhythm in a new system anchored by Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. At the same time, team president Pat Riley is finalizing a trade with the Phoenix Suns to acquire a certain up-and-coming Slovenian point guard, who everyone keeps comparing to Steve Nash.
Flash forward once more, but this time, to the present day. The unthinkable has happened. Bosh has been deemed medically unfit to play, a disgruntled and fed up Wade has moved on from Miami, and the Heat are dwelling at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
It really isn’t too often that we see a perennial contender, like Miami once was, fall from grace so quickly and dramatically, but unfortunately, that’s what has happened. Since then, it’s been hard for Heat fans, but perhaps even harder for “Heat-lifers” like Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra:
“It’s always easy for me to think about how special that time was,” a wistful Spoelstra told the Palm Beach Post last month, as he prepared his new-look Heat team for a back-to-back set against Cleveland and Chicago. “I think it’s 20-plus years I’ve been with the Heat. Every single one of those years, we approached the season to contend for a title. But you’re also experienced to know that doesn’t always happen. When you do have a team that’s special like that, you know pretty quickly that it’s different. So when we get to Cleveland, I’ll think about those thoughts.”
While the Heat have certainly fallen on hard times lately, if we look closely enough there’s still some silver lining. Sure, the team holds a 13-30 record and is struggling to maintain relevancy this season, but there are still a few bright spots that Miami and its fans can look to as signs of hope for the future.
Here are five positive takeaways from the Heat’s 2016-17 season thus far:
1. Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic Look Like the Real Deal
Both Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside are having career seasons in 2016-17. While the wins aren’t exactly piling up for Miami, it’s clear the team has two key pieces it can rely on as it builds towards the future. Dragic is leading the Heat with 19.0 points and 6.4 assists per game this season. Meanwhile, Whiteside has been dominant down low with averages of 17.4 points, 14.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game.
Last summer, some around the league believed that the big man would become “complacent” after signing his four-year, $98 million contract with Miami. Fortunately, that has not been the case. The Heat front office and fans alike should rejoice in knowing that the team has locked up the 7-footer for at least the next few years.
As for Dragic, he’s been the subject of some trade talks since the start of the season, but now it looks like he’s staying put for the time being, and if one asks him, he wouldn’t have it any other way:
“I feel comfortable in Miami. I feel great,” Dragic said last month. “We have a young team. I really got connected with the young guys, and I feel young, too, with them, and I would like to stay here.”
Even if Miami were to trade the quick-cutting guard, the return value would surely be significant, likely in the form of a first-round draft pick plus more.
2. A Top-Five Draft Pick Seems Increasingly Likely
If the 2017 NBA Draft started today, the Heat would have a very strong chance in landing a top-three lottery pick, given the fact they’re currently 29th out of 30 in the standings. Granted, we’re only about halfway through the season and standings will continue to fluctuate, but considering the hole Miami has dug for itself thus far, a high lottery pick is all but guaranteed.
Luckily, this year’s draft is said to be one of the strongest in recent years. Acquiring a talent like Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball or perhaps even Dennis Smith would certainly help the Heat’s chances of righting the ship by next year. While it’s not in Miami’s nature to “tank” for a top pick, the team seems to be heading in that direction regardless.
Next: Three More Positive Takeaways
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3. Promising Surrounding Pieces
Miami’s roster may be devoid of a true superstar, but there are a handful of promising pieces in place that would thrive as a second, third or fourth option on a good team. Guys like Dragic, Whiteside, Tyler Johnson and Justise Winslow have been thrusted into primary roles due to injury and the team’s lack of superstar talent. While each of these players holds significant value, it would be hard to argue that any of them are true “number ones.”
Dragic is fiercely competitive and supremely skilled, while Whiteside has all the tools to be a great NBA big man. Even Johnson, who signed a four-year, $50 million contract in the offseason, is proving his worth as a scorer. Meanwhile, Winslow, who will be back from his shoulder injury next season, has the defensive prowess and the hard-to-come-by intangibles to be a high-level player for years to come. All the team lacks is a superstar leader to guide them, and perhaps a couple more wing players that can create their own shots.
4. Compensation for the Loss of Bosh
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Earlier this season, it was reported that the Heat will likely wait until the playoff deadline in March to officially waive Bosh in order collect full salary cap relief heading into next summer’s free-agency period. Miami wants to wait until the playoff deadline because if Bosh were to sign with another team, then go on to play 25 games or more for that team, the Heat would still bear the burden of Bosh’s salary under their salary cap. Waiting until March would prevent that from happening.
Having Bosh’s salary off the books would lift a massive weight off of Riley’s shoulders and give the front office room to sign a top free agent or two this coming offseason. This year has obviously been rough for Miami, but it’s hard to contend when you’re forking over nearly $24 million of your 2016-17 payroll to a guy who doesn’t even play basketball anymore.
5. Things Could (and Probably Should) Be a Lot Worse
It’s hard too pluck too many positives from the Heat’s on-court production this season, but rest assured, they’re there. Without experienced, playoff-hardened veterans like Wade and Bosh on the team, Miami’s roster is now one of the youngest in the league. Excluding Bosh and Udonis Haslem — who rarely plays and is more of a locker room guy these days — the average age of a Heat player this year is 25.9 years old. For reference, the two best teams in the league are the Golden State Warriors (33-6) and San Antonio Spurs (32-9) and the average age of players on those teams is 27.9 and 28.8 years old, respectively.
In addition, Miami’s season has been severely plagued by the injury bug. In fact, no team has had more players miss games this season than the Heat. This has forced Spoelstra to experiment with more than a dozen different starting lineups since November, making it very difficult for the team to gel.
Considering the aforementioned disadvantages, is Miami really as bad as its record indicates?
Perhaps not, and here’s why:
For one, this young Heat team is getting it done on the defensive end. Miami ranks eighth in the league in points allowed per game (102.8). Also, despite its lack of top-tier talent, the team is only losing games by an average of 4.3 points this year. The league’s worst point differential belongs to the Brooklyn Nets, who are losing games by more than double that figure (-9.7). The Heat also rank in the top half of the league in rebounds per game and average the seventh fewest turnovers per game. Plus, thanks in large part to Whiteside, Miami is top five in blocks per game. Again, things could, and probably should, be worse.
All in all, the season is still young and Miami has a few more months to heal, grow and get better as a unit. While there have been a fair share of negatives this season, there are also a handful of positives to be proud of, and Heat fans should rejoice for the chance to be competitive again in the not-so-distant future.
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