The NBA free agent sweepstakes, which get underway in mid-July, offer teams around the league an opportunity to rebuild or reload.
The Miami Heat are somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. Injuries to key players throughout the season kept the Heat from fully realizing their potential. In spite of that, the team missed the playoffs by just one game.
So, Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra will probably want to tinker around the edges and find players who can come in and contribute quickly. The Heat already have a solid starting lineup featuring a mix of championship experience and young talent. Player for player, they are as talented a group as any in the NBA.
Speaking of that starting five, three — Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and Luol Deng — have player options for next season. Dragic is the most likely of this trio to opt out of his contract this summer, since the 29-year-old point guard in his sixth year out of Yugoslavia is in line for a huge pay day — probably a max contract in the range of 5 years/$109 million.
But Pat Riley is confident that Dragic will be the Heat’s starting quarterback next season. One big factor that weighs heavily in favor of Miami vis-a-vis Dragic’s likely free agency: only the Heat, by virtue of acquiring Dragic’s Bird rights in their trade deadline deal with the Phoenix Suns, can offer the stud play caller a fifth year worth an additional $25-27 million.
Wade will be paid over $16 million next season if he chooses to exercise his player option. Setting aside the money (which he most likely would not get on the open market), though, Wade is probably not inclined under any circumstances to leave the team that drafted him out of Marquette University 11 years ago and for which he has played every minute of his illustrious career.
Deng, who will be paid over $10 million next year if he opts in, is something of a wild card for the Heat as the team approaches free agency. He started 72 games at small forward for the Heat in 2014-15, making him the ironman of the team’s first five. Although his offensive numbers were generally in line with his career averages, his scoring output (14.0 ppg) was his lowest since his rookie season.
Still, he was a steady contributor on the court and a positive presence in the locker room, and the Heat could do worse than having Deng on their roster when next season tips off.
But if Deng were to decline his player option, that would give Riley about $10 million more to play with this summer; a substantial sum that could be used to sign one or two second-tier free agents who would fit into the Heat’s short- and long-term plans.
With the salary cap set to mushroom by $40 million between the upcoming offseason and the summer of 2017-18, the Heat will have to be selective in the type of players they recruit and the length of contracts they offer.
Players themselves, especially superstars, will be equally cautious in the choices they make in the next couple of years as they eye the windfall coming their way in the not-too-distant future.
Further complicating matters for Riley and the Miami number-crunchers: if the Heat max out Hassan Whiteside when he jumps into the free agent pool next year, Miami could conceivably have three players — Chris Bosh, Dragic and Whiteside — each making $20+ million per year going into the 2016-17 season.
The combination of a substantially higher salary cap in the next few years and top tier players coming to the end of their contracts over that same period present NBA executives and general managers with a promising but complicated free agent landscape.
For now, let’s assume the Heat’s starting five stays intact come next fall, with Wade and Dragic in the backcourt, Deng and a healthy Bosh in the frontcourt, and Whiteside manning the middle.
The fact that Miami’s starting jobs are all taken makes Riley’s job easier in some ways, and trickier in others. Easier, because the Heat will not be vying for the big name free agents who are available this summer. LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan — these are names that Riley can cross off his list.
Rather, the Heat need to find players who will be content with coming off the bench — guys who know coming in that they will be a part of the supporting cast. However, because of the age and health at least two starters — Wade and Bosh — these role players could conceivably find their workload increase next season.
Threading the needle between young, unproven talent and experienced veterans on their last legs will not be easy. Miami needs to find some diamonds in the rough and sign them to cap-friendly contracts.
So, who might the Heat target in free agency to to fill out the team’s supporting cast?
Let’s go with ten players — two at each position on the floor — who the Heat might consider luring to South Beach:
1. Jeremy Lin (Los Angeles Lakers)
Lin was mentioned here as a possible trade target back in February, but he still makes sense as a potential free agent pickup for the Heat.
That sensational spring of 2012 when “Linsanity” was born seems so long ago. Lin has come back down to Earth since then, but basketball fans can still catch glimpses of the talent that lifted him to historic heights three springs ago.
He signed a back-loaded three-year, $25 million contract with the Houston Rockets following the 2011-12 season, $14 million of which was paid to him this past season by his current team, the Los Angeles Lakers.
At this point, Lin will have to set his expectations a bit lower as he looks for a new team (the Lakers, whose head coach Byron Scott demoted Lin to the bench halfway through the season, will almost certainly not bid for his services). He would be fortunate to get a starting job with any team, and at half of what he earned this season.
Lin is probably going to attract a two- or three-year contract in the $11-13 million range, although there are some more (unreasonably) bullish estimates of Lin’s earning potential out there, too.
If the Heat can get Lin at their price, $4-5 million per season for a couple of years, he could potentially be a very effective backup for Dragic. Lin is still good at probing the heart of the opposing defense, drawing defenders to himself, and dishing the ball to slashers for easy dunks and layups or kicking it to open shooters for three’s.
The former Harvard University standout also has, as one might expect for a graduate of the world’s top university, a high basketball IQ.
Lin could also play within himself as a reserve, rather than try to live up to a big contract and high expectations as he did in Houston and L.A. Having lost his starting job in both cities, he may embrace his role as Spolestra’s first call off the bench.
Next: Will Bynum (Washington Wizards)
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2. Will Bynum (Washington Wizards)
The undrafted 6’0″ 185-pound point guard out of Georgia Tech has proven to be a resilient commodity in professional basketball, both here and abroad.
Bynum has bounced around the NBA and international leagues throughout his seven-year career, most recently signing with the Washington Wizards in March just weeks after his season with the Guangdong Southern Tigers of the Chinese Basketball Association ended.
Bynum’s best years were in Detroit between 2008 and 2014, where in a backup role to Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight, he could be counted on for about 8.0 points and 3.5 assists a night. These may not be eye-popping stats, but Bynum has proven himself to be a reliable understudy for some of the leagues premier point men, including John Wall, who spoke highly of him shortly before he joined the Wiz.
In short relief, he could provide a steady hand to guide the Heat while Dragic rests. He won’t do anything spectacular (although he did have a 20 assist game back in 2010); but he will do just enough to keep the wheels from coming off the wagon, an underestimated skill for backup point guards in the Association.
In short, Bynum is a competent and serviceable reserve who the Heat could probably sign for short years and short money, perhaps somewhere around 2 years/$5-6 million. He is a stealthy value at the point guard position.
Note: Adding either of these PGs (or any point guard) would obviously create a logjam at the position with Mario Chalmers already on the roster and on the books until next summer, so the Heat would need to find a taker for ‘Rio in a trade to create room.
If Chalmers, who split time with Norris Cole the last two seasons, is satisfied being Dragic’s backup, he might actually make this conversation redundant, which could allow the Heat to focus on other areas of need.
Other Possibilities:
Andre Miller (Sacramento Kings) – Miller’s effective “old-man game” and veteran leadership would give Heat opponents a different look from the more athletic and dynamic Dragic.
Steve Blake (Portland Trail Blazers) – Blake is a savvy veteran who can take the wheel from Dragic for 12-15 minutes a game and drain a few three’s while he in there.
Beno Udrih (Memphis Grizzlies) – solid career backup point guard.
Next: Gerald Green (Phoenix Suns)
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3. Gerald Green (Phoenix Suns)
Since making the jump to the NBA from high school ten years ago, Gerald Green has become a curiously talented journeyman.
He is an undeniably athletic wing; his 2007 NBA Slam Dunk Contest trophy (he was runner-up in 2008) attests to that.
But without polishing his ground game, Green had remained a talented highlight reel regular and not much more.
Until recently, that is. Over the past two seasons in Phoenix, the 6’8″ shooting guard has developed a better all-around floor game and has elevated his value as a solid reserve for the Morris twins and even Dragic, who saw minutes as an off-guard while playing alongside fellow point guards Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas.
Green may be able to play himself into a starting job somewhere (he has been a career second stringer), but as Wade enters the twilight of his career, he might see an opportunity to grow his game even further under the tutelage of one of the best ever at his position.
And though Green is probably in for a big pay increase this offseason, he might want to bet on himself and sign a one- or two-year contract, continue to evolve his game, and cash in next summer or in 2017 when teams will have more money to spend.
Next: Will Barton (Denver Nuggets)
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4. Will Barton (Denver Nuggets)
Originally selected by the Trail Blazers in the second round of the 2012 NBA Draft, Barton found it hard to get playing time in the Pacific Northwest behind teammates Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. He made his rounds through the D-League early in his career before being recalled and ultimately being traded to the Denver Nuggets in February.
Barton has shown an ability to score and defend at his position well when given the minutes. Over the last 28 games of the season with the Nuggets, the 6’6,” 175-pound shooting guard put up 11 points and grabbed more than four rebounds in about 24 minutes per game.
The sample size is small, but Barton has at least shown signs of becoming a strong contributor off the bench. His three-point shooting has to be addressed (he is a career .230 percent from beyond the arc), but Barton has demonstrated a willingness to be coached everywhere he’s been in the league.
But there are a couple of potential snags for the Heat if they wish to pursue him.
First, Barton is a restricted free agent, meaning the Nuggets (after making a qualifying offer) can match any bid from the Heat or any other team when the signing period opens up.
Second, Barton is happy in the Mile High City. The Nuggets gave him a chance to get a foothold in the league, and he may be inclined to continue his development in Denver.
Neverthless, Miami may attempt to pry Barton away from Denver, because in terms of talent, age and career trajectory, he fits very well in to Miami’s overall vision both in the near term and down the road.
Other Possibilities:
Corey Brewer (Houston Rockets) – Brewer is what Barton could be in 2-3 years.
Jason Terry (Houston Rockets) – “The Jet” could fill the role Ray Allen played in the “Big Three” era.
Nick Calathes (Memphis Grizzlies) – Though he was drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2009, most of his professional experience has been in overseas leagues (Greece and Russia);
Arron Afflalo (Portland Trail Blazers) – the versatile Afflalo would be a good fit at several positions for the Heat.
Next: Mike Dunleavy (Chicago Bulls)
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5. Mike Dunleavy (Chicago Bulls)
Though he started balling in Oakland with the Golden State Warriors 12 years ago, Mike Dunleavy has spent the last nine seasons completing a tour of duty for each of the NBA’s Midwest franchises — the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, and most recently, Chicago Bulls. The lanky former Duke Blue Devil has averaged about 12 points and four rebounds for his career.
Dunleavy has been effective as a starter and reserve throughout his time in the league, and though he started for most of the past two seasons in the Windy City, he might not be opposed to returning to the bench in the right circumstances.
He is an unrestricted free agent in July, and with the Bulls’ coaching situation in flux, Derrick Rose’s health a constant concern, and emerging star Jimmy Butler’s return not guaranteed, Dunleavy may wait to see how the dominos fall before deciding on his future.
As a backup to Deng or Wade, Dunleavy could be the second coming of Mike Miller. He has a knack for getting under the skin of opposing players and a decent stroke from outside.
And at $3.3 million this last season, he could be a good value play for the Heat.
Next: Omri Casspi (Sacramento Kings)
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6. Omri Casspi (Sacramento Kings)
Omri Casspi came to the NBA from Israel five years ago and has shown himself to be a steady 8-11 point scorer in about 20-25 minutes per game since arriving. And at 26, his game seems to be rounding into form.
At 6’9″ and 225 pounds, he possesses the length and strength to guard wings and the occasional power forward. He also presents a matchup problem for opposing frontcourts with his size.
He averaged 8.9 points and 3.9 rebounds per game with the Kings in 2014-15, and his shooting touch has never been better. He shot a career-best .489 percent from the field, .402 from behind the three-point line, and .733 percent from the charity stripe.
He made just under a million dollars last season, and he will probably be looking for a contract that pays him an average of $3-4 million per year.
Casspi is a talented player who might go under the radar this offseason, and the Heat would do well to swoop in and take him off the board before anyone notices he’s available at a bargain price.
Again, as with a few other players mentioned here, Casspi has expressed his interest in staying put, so it might take a big swing, i.e. $$, to get him out of California’s capital city and into a Heat uniform.
Other Possibilities:
DeMarre Carroll (Atlanta Hawks) – an athletic Swiss Army knife of a player who’s drawing favorable comparisons to Jimmy Butler and San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard.
Paul Pierce (Washington Wizards) – would the future Hall-of-Famer accept a backup role with the Heat for a chance to make one more run to the Finals?
Al-Farouq Aminu (Dallas Mavericks) – not a scoring threat, but a good rebounder and defender.
LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers) – just kidding.
Next: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Philadelphia 76ers)
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7. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Philadelphia 76ers)
The sixth-year player out of UCLA doesn’t do anything spectacular on the court, but he does most things well.
His seven-point and five-rebound career averages may not stand out, but his quiet demeanor and workmanlike effort on a nightly basis have earned him a spot on four teams.
Sensing a pattern here? Mbah a Moute is like a whisper personified, and his intangibles are what allow him to continue drawing checks in the NBA. He’s not a scrappy, energy guy in the mold of, say, Shane Battier, but he gives a solid effort every minute he’s on the floor.
He scored a career-high 9.9 points per game this past season, although his shooting percentages in all categories were at or below his career numbers. But at 6’8” and 230 pounds, he’s more than capable of defending three positions on the floor, which is what the Heat could use coming off the bench.
If Mbah a Moute is surrounded by competent scorers, he will do the little things to facilitate the offense without necessarily putting points on the board himself.
The native of Cameroon made just under $4.4 million last season with the Sixers and Sacramento Kings, and he will probably be looking for an annual paycheck in that vicinity, or perhaps a bit lower.
Next: Ed Davis (Los Angeles Lakers)
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8. Ed Davis (Los Angeles Lakers)
Ed Davis’ talent is finally catching up to his size as he gets ready for his fifth year in the NBA.
Davis has always been a good rebounder, grabbing more than six per game for his career. But last season, he proved he can be a very effective player around the rim, either with his back to the basket or on the offensive boards. He shot a career-best 60% from the field to go along with about eight points and eight rebounds for the Lakers in 2014-15.
At 6’10” and 240 pounds, Davis is a load for many opposing power forwards, and his strength and athleticism allow him to match up defensively against most bigs, including centers. He was the Lakers’ leading shot blocker with 1.24 denials per game — from the bench, no less.
He would be an ideal backup for either Whiteside or Bosh because of his versatility, and he could sustain energy for the Heat on both ends of the floor when filling in for one of their two front court starters.
In short, Davis would be a perfect complementary piece for this Heat team, and at around $3-4 million per year, the price is right.
Other Possibilities:
Tyler Hansbrough (Toronto Raptors) – the former University of North Carolina Tar Heel star can always be counted on for energy, hustle and grit, but his numbers have declined steadily over the last few years.
Jonas Jerebko (Boston Celtics) – effective stretch-four, helped the Celtics pass the Heat late in the season, but may be too expensive for Miami.
Amir Johnson (Toronto Raptors) – only feasible if Deng opts out and the Heat swing and miss on Carroll.
Next: Kosta Koufos (Memphis Grizzlies)
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9. Kosta Koufos (Memphis Grizzlies)
The 2015-16 season will be Kosta Koufos’ seventh out of Ohio State University. The former Buckeye has played for the Grizzlies the past two seasons and has carved out a place for himself on the bench backing up Marc Gasol.
His numbers last year were about par for his career — 5.2 points and 5.3 rebounds per game — and with Gasol carrying the load on offense and defense at the center position for Memphis, Koufos was not asked to do much when he checked in for his teammate.
His 7’0″ 265-pound frame make him a presence on the floor and he can hold his own against other teams’ power forwards and centers, making him good in short relief.
While Whiteside is an athletic five who can jump out of the building, Koufos is more earthbound and does his work without much fanfare. That could make him an effective reserve for Miami.
But seven-footers don’t grow on trees, and that fact alone will drive Koufos’ price up to the $6-7 million per year range. Riley will have to decide whether Koufos is an essential piece next season (and perhaps beyond), or if he can find another big, maybe a power forward, who could fill the backup center role with the Heat.
Next: Jordan Hill (Los Angeles Lakers)
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10. Jordan Hill (Los Angeles Lakers)
The 6’10” 235-pound five year veteran out of the University of Arizona is technically a four, but most centers in the league today are glorified power forwards, anyway.
Hill averaged a career-high in points (12.0) and rebounds (7.9) last season, and his solid build allows him to match up against forwards and centers on the defensive end.
The Lakers have a team option on Hill for next season at $9 million, but they are unlikely to bring him back at that number. As underrated as he is, Hill may not be firm on a starting job this summer, although his salary demands may be outside the Heat’s budget.
Still, he would be a very solid addition to the Heat’s rotation filling in for Bosh or Whiteside, or playing alongside them at times.
Other Possibilities:
Andrew Bynum (Los Angeles Lakers) – the talented enigma that is Andrew Bynum has tempted more than a few teams — including the Heat — since he was traded away from the Lakers in 2012. Probably too many question marks here.
Robin Lopez (Portland Trail Blazers) – Robin Lopez may not have the all-around game of his twin brother Brook, but he has thrived when paired with other talented big men, like Amar’e Stoudemire and LaMarcus Aldridge. A starter throughout his career, he would have to be willing to sacrifice money and minutes to play for the Heat, which makes him a reach for Miami.
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