The Miami Heat may seem bound for a second consecutive trip to the play-in tournament this year, but there’s still a path for the team to clinch an outright playoff spot before the end of the regular season.
In fact, there are multiple paths.
The Heat, who are 44-36 and own the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, have two games left on their schedule. Here are the ways they can steal a playoff spot without having to navigate the play-in.
Scenario A:
- Heat win out (remaining schedule: two games vs. Toronto Raptors)
- Orlando Magic lose out (remaining schedule: at Philadelphia 76ers, vs. Milwaukee Bucks)
- 76ers lose final game of regular season after beating Magic (remaining schedule: vs. Magic, vs. Brooklyn Nets)
In this case, the Heat would end up as the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. Now, here’s a look at the next scenario.
Scenario B:
- Heat win out
- Magic lose out
- Indiana Pacers lose out (remaining schedule: at Cleveland Cavaliers, vs. Atlanta Hawks)
In this case, the Heat would also end up as the No. 6 seed.
There is, however, a world where Miami lands the No. 5 seed. Here’s what would need to happen for that possibility to come to life.
Bonus scenario (for No. 5 seed):
- Heat win out
- Magic lose out
- Pacers lose out
- 76ers lose final game of regular season after beating Magic
Basketball Reference gives the Heat just a 1.7 percent chance of stealing the No. 5 seed and a 9.4 percent chance of landing the No. 6 seed. Still, the fact that Miami is still mathematically alive in those scenarios should give the team some added motivation over the remainder of the regular season.
All the Heat can do is focus on what’s in front of them, and they’ll have to hope that they get some helpful results around the league in the meantime. Miami’s next game will come on Friday against the Raptors before the two teams will meet again on Sunday to close the regular season.
The Heat showed last season that it’s entirely possible to make a deep playoff run after starting in the play-in, but they’d certainly prefer to take a different route this time around.