If one were to watch the 2014 NBA Finals, one would think Dwyane Wade was done. In fact, if one were to listen to the media’s opinion of the 32-year-old shooting guard this offseason, they would be hard-pressed to believe D3 is actually coming off of the most efficient season of his career.
Here are the facts—the 2006 Finals MVP shot a career-high .545 from the field. His true shooting percentage of .588 last season was also the highest of his 11 seasons in the NBA.
But with the good comes the bad. And although the 2013-14 regular season was Wade’s most efficient, his 2014 NBA Finals performance was the worst showing of his five appearances in the championship round. The face of the franchise averaged just 15.2 points per game on .438 shooting from the field while averaging over 3.5 turnovers a game. Wade looked old, tired and fatigued. This was in spite of an in-season schedule of rest implemented by head coach Erik Spoelstra, that was designed to keep the SG fresh for the postseason run.
Obviously, Spoelstra and the Heat did not get the results they were looking for as Wade struggled en route to the Heat losing in five games to the San Antonio Spurs.
While the past is the past and the Heat can’t do anything but look toward the future, the question becomes, does Wade still have it? Can he still lead the Heat now that LeBron James is gone? Or will he be more of a liability than anything else due to his lingering health issues?
A fair way of measuring Wade’s value entering the 2014-15 season is where he ranks among the top shooting guards in the NBA. Let’s take a look at some of the other top off-guards in the upcoming season by tier:
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The Bottom-Tier Of The Top 10 (Dion Waiters, Manu Ginobli, Arron Afflalo, Bradley Beal, Lance Stephenson)
In this grouping, you have two-guards who impact the game in a number of major ways for their respective teams. All five of these players have different roles and varying skill sets in comparison to the other players in this tier. For example, Dion Waiters is a young guard capable of scoring nearly 20 points a night.
The 22-year-old averaged 16 points a game over the duration of the 2013-14 season, but he averaged five points more a game after the All-Star break in comparison to before. Before the acquisition of LeBron, the young guard was one of the Cavs’ top two scoring options along with Kyrie Irving.
When you take a look at a guy like Lance Stephenson, he is far from a scorer—he averaged just 13.8 points per game last season. However, his 7.2 rebounds per game led the next best guard in that category by a full rebound (Trevor Ariza was second with 6.2 boards a game). His all-around contributions to the offensive and defensive ends make him a key role player that any championship-caliber team would love to have. For example, the Indiana Pacers had an offensive rating of 105.8 with Stephenson on the court. Without him, their rating plummeted to 101.3.
Whether you look at young spark plugs such as Waiters and Stephenson, or proven veteran role players on championship teams such as Manu Ginobli, this tier features quality players all capable of being key cogs on championship contenders. However, that’s all they are—cogs. None of these players have been, or will be, the best player on a championship-contending team.
Therefore, a player like Wade automatically surpasses every player in this tier. Remember, ‘Flash’ is a former Finals MVP and as recently as 2011 was the best player on a team in an NBA Finals series.
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The Guys Just Outside Of The Elite (Klay Thompson, Monta Ellis and Demar Derozan)
These guys are a step up above the previous pecking order. How big of a step up is it? Consider this—all three guys are more than capable of being the go-to scorer on their respective teams. In fact, that’s what two of these three guys are—scorers who are/have led their teams in scoring. Derozan led the Toronto Raptors to their first division title in six seasons by averaging 22.7 a game. Ellis helped lead the Dallas Mavericks to a playoff berth by averaging 19.0 points per game. The only reason Thompson doesn’t lead his team in scoring is because he plays alongside the best pure shooter in the NBA in Steph Curry.
All three players share something in common, and that’s the trait of being able to carry a team by putting shots through the hoop. For years, Monta was his team’s best scorer in Golden State and Sacramento. In 2007-08, he shot a career-high .531 from the field while scoring 20 a night. Not bad for a 6’3”, 175-pound off-guard. Derozan is just coming into his own as a scorer at the age of 25. In two of the past four seasons, he has led the Raptors in total points scored. At the age of 24, Thompson averaged 18.4 points per game while shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc last season.
With the exception of Ellis, both Thompson and Derozan have room to grow, and will continue to improve as players. While these guys are knocking on the door of ‘the elite,’ they are best used as No. 2 options on a championship-winning team. Think Scottie Pippen, except this trio are more complete as scorers than the Chicago Bulls great.
Because these guys are best suited as No. 2 options on great teams, Wade is above this echelon.
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The X-Factor (Kobe Bryant)
Although it feels like forever ago, Kobe Bryant was an elite shooting guard and arguably a top five player just two seasons ago. During the 2012-13 campaign, Kobe averaged 27.3 points per game on .463 efficiency from the field. He was named to the All-NBA First Team for the 11th time in his career.
However, the NBA—much like the rest of the universe—is a “show me what you’ve done lately” type of league. And the fact that Bryant is recovering from a serious achilles’ injury at the age of 36 makes the 2014-15 season for the five-time NBA Champion a mystery.
Although the last time Kobe played a full season was one in which he played like he was still the best shooting guard on the planet, he is too big of a question mark to properly evaluate. Therefore, the jury remains out on No. 24 until we see him on the court during the regular season.
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The Elite (James Harden and Dwyane Wade)
This is where even the most die-hard of Heat fans will have trouble vouching for the Marquette product. While Wade is still an elite guard, he is not the player that Harden currently is. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Harden is the face of all two-guards in the current NBA, averaging over 25 points a game each of the last two seasons with the Houston Rockets. He ranked fifth in MVP voting in 2013-14, and at the age of 25, it’s hard not to believe that he has yet to reach his peak.
What Harden is today is what Wade was for the Heat up until 2011—a guard who penetrated through the paint with fearless aggression. The Houston Rocket makes his living at the free-throw line, averaging 9.1 attempts per game from the charity stripe. From 2005-2010, Wade averaged at least 9.1 attempts a game from the free-throw line in each one of those seasons.
The bottom line is this-Wade is 32 years old. Harden is seven years younger than the Heat great. Having said that, if this was Wade at 25 in comparison to the current version of Harden, I think we’d know where the advantage lies.
The Verdict
Contrary to media rhetoric, D3 is still the second-best shooting guard in the NBA. Yes, he played in only 54 regular season games in 2014. Yes, he looked old and tired in the 2014 NBA Finals. And there is little doubt that the ailing injuries that have bothered him over recent seasons will continue to bother him until he finally calls it a career.
However, with the exception of Harden, there isn’t a single two-guard in the NBA that can carry a team like Wade.
Entering the 2014-15 season, the man they call ‘Flash’ still remains an elite shooting guard.
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