The 2024-25 NBA season has not gone to plan for the Miami Heat, as they are the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference with just two games remaining in the regular season.
Miami has clinched a play-in tournament berth, but it’s possible that the team will have to win two road games (if it ends up in the No. 10 spot) just to reach the playoffs.
The Heat are 1.5 games out of the No. 8 spot in the East, but they’d need both the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls to lose games in order to have a shot to jump them and avoid the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in game.
After entering the season with playoff expectations, the Heat have seen things take a pretty dramatic turn, as they traded away Jimmy Butler ahead of the trade deadline after suspending him multiple times.
Still, Miami has an opportunity to make the playoffs by way of the play-in tournament for a third straight season.
Back in the 2022-23 campaign, the Heat earned the No. 8 seed in the East after surviving the play-in and ended up making a run to the NBA Finals with Butler leading the way. Then, in the 2023-24 season, Miami earned the No. 8 seed again by surviving the play-in tournament but was promptly bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics.
If the Heat finish the 2024-25 regular season in ninth or 10th place, their only option to make the playoffs will be as the No. 8 seed, which would require two wins in the play-in. That would set up a first-round playoff matchup with the No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.
While this season certainly hasn’t gone to plan for Erik Spoelstra’s group, there are still plenty of reasons to believe in the Heat to get through the play-in tournament.
Experience is key
This isn’t an unfamiliar situation for Miami.
Spoelstra and the Heat have dealt with the must-win nature of the play-in tournament before, and several players on the roster were a part of the team’s play-in runs to make the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, including Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.
Newcomer Andrew Wiggins also participated in the play-in tournament during his time with the Golden State Warriors. Miami’s top players (and many of their role players) have gotten a taste of the challenge.
The Heat also have several players that have competed in the NBA Finals before, so they’ve been in high-pressure playoff environments in their careers. This should help the Heat in these winner-take-all play-in games.
Plus, Spoelstra has experience scheming for these one-game play-in scenarios.
While Miami has not fared well against the Bulls this season (it is 0-3), the team has gone .500 against both the Hawks and Orlando Magic. Plus, the Heat have far more playoff experience, especially when it comes to NBA Finals experience, on their roster than any of those teams.
The Heat will obviously still need to show up and play well in the play-in, but this isn’t an unfamiliar position for a good chunk of the roster.
Still an elite defensive team
Even though the Heat are under .500 and have struggled for stretches (like their 10-game losing streak earlier this season), they have still been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in the 2024-25 campaign.
Miami ranks No. 9 in the league in defensive rating, and it is seventh in opponent points per game.
This is one area where Miami differs significantly from Chicago and Atlanta. The Bulls are 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating and 28th in opponent points per game. Atlanta isn’t much better, ranking 20th in the league in defensive rating and 27th in opponent points per game.
If the Heat can keep things close in a play-in tournament clash, their defense is certainly capable of coming up with stops late.
It’s hard to say the same for Chicago and Atlanta since they allow so many points per game. Both teams are giving up more than 119 points per game in the regular season, and they may struggle to find a different level of defensive intensity when the play-in tournament starts.
Peaking at the right time?
It’s not a secret that this season hasn’t gone the way Miami initially intended, but it appears the Heat are finding their groove at the right time in the campaign.
Over their last 10 games, the Heat rank second in the NBA in net rating (behind only the Los Angeles Clippers), seventh in the league in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. Their improved play on offense is extremely interesting to note, as the Heat are just 21st in the NBA in offensive rating for the entire season.
Losing Butler has limited Miami’s offensive ceiling a bit, but Herro (an All-Star this season) has proven that he can carry the offense at times.
Plus, Adebayo is playing some of the best basketball he has all season on the offensive end as of late, averaging 20.9 points per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3 since the start of March (21 games).
Miami has a better net rating than Orlando, Chicago and Atlanta over this 10-game stretch, and it’s possible the Heat can carry that momentum into the play-in tournament.
While this season may not result in another trip to the NBA Finals, Miami is more than capable of reaching the playoff field in the East. Heat fans have seen this team earn the No. 8 seed before, and there are a lot of positive signs late in the 2024-25 season that show it can be done again.
